OnlyFans Subscriber Cohort Retention & LTV Tracker

Track subscriber retention decay curves and calculate subscriber lifetime value (LTV). Support for monthly subscription tiers, tips, and PPVs.

Mathematical Audit

Cohort Retention & LTV Formulas

Model customer churn and lifetime spend to track the long-term value of subscribers from the signup month onwards.

Active Subs (Month N) = Cohort Size × (Retention Rate Month N ÷ 100)
Net Sub Revenue per Subscriber = (Subscription Price + Avg Monthly Tips/PPV) × 80%
Monthly Revenue Month N = Active Subs Month N × Net Sub Revenue per Subscriber
Cumulative Revenue = Sum(Monthly Revenue from Month 0 to Month 6)
Cohort LTV = Cumulative Net Revenue ÷ Cohort Size

Subscription price represents the rebill cost. Tips and PPV (Pay-Per-View) unlocks are modeled as a flat monthly average spend per active subscriber.

Operational Guide

How to Track OnlyFans Cohort Retention

1

Enter your starting cohort size

Input the total number of new subscribers who signed up during a specific cohort month (e.g., January).

2

Specify subscription price and tips

Enter the tier price of your subscription and the average tips or PPV revenue generated per subscriber per month.

3

Input monthly retention rates

Input the percentage of subscribers who stay active from Month 1 to Month 6 (e.g., Month 1: 45%, Month 2: 30%, etc.).

4

Review subscriber decay curves

Inspect the active subscriber counts decaying over time and watch the cumulative earnings curve grow.

5

Analyze Lifetime Value (LTV)

Identify your final 6-month LTV to understand how much you can spend to acquire a subscriber profitably.

Real-World Scenario Example

"A creator starts a January cohort of 200 subscribers, charging $9.99/mo + $15.00/mo avg tips. Month 1 retention is 45%."

Inputs

cohortSize:200
subscriptionPrice:9.99
avgTipsPpvPerMonth:15
retentionMonth1:45
retentionMonth2:30
retentionMonth3:20
retentionMonth4:15
retentionMonth5:10
retentionMonth6:8

Result

Month 0 net: $3,998. Month 1 net (90 active subs): $1,799. Total 6-month revenue: $8,705. Average Cohort LTV: $43.53.

Important Disclaimer

These estimates are for educational purposes. Churn rates, spending behaviors, and platform fees can fluctuate widely from cohort to cohort depending on content changes.